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作者: 来源: 日期:2017-01-04 9:35:28

Markets outlook: the big issues facing investors in 2017





Welcome to a new year and the pressing market issues facing investors as they look to put money to work and navigate 2017.



Geopolitical surprises upended expectations last year and few predicted that 2016 would end with a global bull market in equities, while bond yields remain relatively low. Will strategists be any better at forecasting this time around? Here are the big questions that will preoccupy investors as the first trading days of the year unfold.



Are markets at risk of a Trump disappointment trade?



Investors have taken a leap of faith that the combination of fiscal stimulus and less onerous regulations for many businesses under president-elect Donald Trump will ignite the US economy and call time on the era of lacklustre growth and slumbering bond yields. In turn, the long-mooted great rotation has begun, with money leaving bonds and flowing into equities.

投资者已在突然之间相信了,美国当选总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)主政下财政刺激和减少束缚许多企业的繁重法规的组合政策,将提振美国经济,结束增长乏力和债券收益率低下的时代。酝酿已久的资金从债市流入股市的“大挪移”也已经开始。


The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 of small capitalisation stocks have all hit highs since November 8.

118日以来,标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)、道琼斯工业平均指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)、纳斯达克综合指数(Nasdaq Composite)以及小盘股指数罗素2000指数(Russell 2000),都创下了高点。广州投资翻译公司。


The yield on the 10-year US Treasury, meanwhile, has jumped from a low of 1.32 per cent in July to 2.5 per cent, as bond investors contemplate faster economic growth and higher rates ahead.



Yet is it too much, too soon, especially for a stock market many had judged to be expensive? A stronger dollar also looms over multinational US companies, offsetting cuts in taxes and regulation.



Wall Street tends to get ahead of itself at times, and this appears to be one of those,” says Jenny Jones, head of US small and mid-cap equities at Schroders. “We do believe [Trump] will achieve many of his goals, but they seem to be close to fully priced now and they could take nine-18 months to accomplish. That leaves a lot of room for disappointment.”

“华尔街往往喜欢不时地超前,这次似乎也不例外,”施罗德(Schroders)美国中小盘股票主管珍妮•琼斯(Jenny Jones)说,“我们相信(特朗普)将实现自己的许多目标,但它们可能需要918个月才能实现,现在却似乎接近于完全反映到了股价上。投资者很可能会失望。”


How will Europe and the UK handle Brexit?



It may be only the eighth most traded currency pair, but euro-sterling price action offers a gauge for political risk as well as strong trading opportunities in 2017.



Talk of “hard Brexit” in which the UK forgoes single-market access to have full control over its borders has resulted in investors marking down the value of UK assets — selling the pound — and has cast doubt over London’s position as one of the world’s biggest financial centres.



Weakness in the euro against the pound on the back of Brexit developments would suggest a reduction in investors’ Brexit risk premium. Steven Saywell at BNP Paribas believes euro-sterling will fall. “Sterling is at an extreme pricing, it is vulnerable to positive surprises and a weakening in hard Brexit,” he says.

在英国退欧逐步推进的背景下,欧元对英镑走软意味着,投资者的英国退欧风险溢价将减少。法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)的斯蒂文•塞维尔(Steven Saywell)认为,欧元兑英镑汇率将下跌。“英镑处于一个极端的价位,容易受到意外利好的影响,也易受到硬退欧的削弱,”他说。


An outlandish prediction from Saxo Bank even has the euro falling to 73p on the basis that the EU will be forced by migration pressures in Europe to cede ground to the UK.

盛宝银行(Saxo Bank)甚至预测欧元兑英镑汇率跌至1欧元兑73便士,理由是,欧洲的移民压力将迫使欧盟对英国作出让步。


There is also the matter of what Brexit means for the future of the euro with France, Holland, Italy and Germany holding elections in 2017. If anti-euro movements gain the upper hand elsewhere, even Germany may reassess saving it, say Deutsche Bank group’s chief economist David Folkerts-Landau and chief German economist Stefan Schneider. “The pros of a single currency probably outweigh the cons for Germany — not least because its own currency would massively appreciate.”

鉴于法国、荷兰、意大利和德国将在2017年举行选举,英国退欧对欧元的未来意味着什么也是个问题。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)集团首席经济学家戴维•福尔克茨-兰多(David Folkerts-Landau)和首席德国经济学家斯特凡•施奈德(Stefan Schneider)表示,如果反欧元运动在别的地方占得上风,甚至德国可能都要重新评估是否拯救欧元。“单一货币对德国而言可能利大于弊——尤其是如果德国使用自己的货币,它会大幅升值。”


Will the oil market balance?



Oil supply from the world’s biggest producers will be in focus from the first trading day of January as market participants assess the extent to which countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia reduce production following a global deal to cut supplies for the first time since the global financial crisis.



There will also be keen interest in the return of US shale oil and the sustainability of supply recoveries by Libya and Nigeria, conflict-ridden nations that were left out of the output cut agreement.



The outcome of these unknowns will determine when oil supply and demand come into balance in 2017 and whether prices will remain above $50 a barrel. “Until we start to get answers, the debates will continue,” says Michael Wittner at Société Générale. “Until then, we believe that markets will enter a ‘wait and see’ mode; crude prices are likely to start trading within a relatively wide range”.

这些未知事件的结果将决定2017年的石油供需何时实现平衡,油价是否将维持在每桶50美元以上。“在我们开始得到答案之前,争论将一直持续,”法国兴业银行(Société Générale)的迈克尔•威特纳(Michael Wittner)说,“我们认为,在那之前,市场将进入‘观望’模式;原油价格很可能开始在一个相对广的区间内波动。”


If Opec members and co-operating countries such as Russia succeed, they could finally draw down tanks brimming with excess crude — helping to end the commodity supply glut. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), a basket of 22 futures contracts, rose nearly 12 per cent in 2016, its first annual rise since 2010. Alongside oil, industrial metals such as zinc and copper have also been climbing on hopes that stronger global growth will underpin demand.

如果欧佩克(Opec)成员国及俄罗斯等合作国取得成功,他们最终可能降低过剩原油储量——帮助终结石油供过于求的局面。2016年,包含22种期货合约的彭博大宗商品指数(Bloomberg Commodity Index)上涨了近12%,这是自2010年以来首次出现较上年上涨。与石油一道,锌、铜等工业金属的价格也在上涨,因为市场预期更强劲的全球增长将支撑对这些金属的需求。


Are global banks investable once more?



Banking equity indices in Japan, Europe and the US posted double-digit gains in the second half of 2016, marking a change of fortunes from earlier in the year when the sector was beset by worries about profitability erosion amid low and negative interest rates, strict regulation and fines for bad behaviour.



According to investors, one of the most important causes for optimism is the prospect of higher interest rates on stronger economic growth as policy gears switch from monetary to fiscal measures in the coming year. Rising long-term bond yields help banks by boosting their net interest margin — the difference between the rates on their borrowing and lending. “We remain broadly bullish on banks as a sector,” says Mark Dowding, partner at BlueBay Asset Management.

投资者方面,其乐观的最重要原因之一,就是在接下来的这一年,随着政策努力从货币政策转向财政措施,经济增长将加强,利率呈现上升前景。长期债券收益率上升有助于银行提高其净利差,即存贷款的利差。BlueBay Asset Management合伙人马克•道丁(Mark Dowding)表示:“我们仍然普遍看好银行业。”广州投资翻译公司。


But the rebound will face a stern test, particularly in Europe where the health of the sector is in question. European banks are on course to be worth 0.68 times analyst estimates for the book value of their assets at the end of 2016. For all the share price movement, the valuation is less generous than it was a year ago.



Are financial conditions going to be tighter?



The last time there was a substantial and rapid rise in US government bond yields was more than two decades ago — in 1994. At the time, much of the financial world failed to anticipate the speed and pace of rate increases announced by the Federal Reserve — which led the yield on 10-year Treasuries to jump 2 percentage points in the space of five months.



Complacency this time around may be of a different kind. Investors appear to see a pro-growth Federal Reserve under Janet Yellen and expect three more rate raises in 2017.

金融界这次的自满可能有所不同。投资者似乎看到了一个在珍妮特•耶伦(Janet Yellen)的带领下支持增长的美联储,并预期2017年将有三次加息。


Philippe Ithurbide, global head of research for Amundi Asset Management, says: “It is difficult to understand the message: how to have at the same time stronger growth, a weaker dollar and a more restrictive monetary policy?”

东方汇理资产管理公司(Amundi Asset Managemen)的全球研究主管菲利普•伊蒂尔比德(Philippe Ithurbide)表示:“很难去理解如下信息:如何同时实现增长加速、美元走弱和更严格的货币政策?”广州投资翻译公司。


Real economic growth in the US is running at about 2 per cent, as is the rate of inflation, while the unemployment rate is low, figures that would have normally suggested a much higher level for interest rates. Should the Fed move too fast the repercussions could be severe. Six of the 12 tightening cycles since 1945 have resulted in a US recession within two years.



Has the EM tantrum got further to run?



Donald Trump’s election win intensified a rout in developing economy assets that spurred net redemptions from emerging market equity and bond funds at a pace not seen since the US bond taper tantrum of 2013.

唐纳德•特朗普当选美国总统加剧了发展中经济体资产下跌趋势,从而刺激新兴市场股票和债券基金以2013年美国债券“削减恐慌”(taper tantrum)以来所未见的速度净赎回。


The Mexican peso and Turkish lira plumbed record lows, as the post-election “Trump trade” spurred a stronger dollar and higher bond yields.



Only Russia appeared to escape the trend, thanks in part to discernible warmth between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.

只有俄罗斯似乎避免了这种趋势,这在一定程度上得益于唐纳德•特朗普与弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)显而易见的友好关系。


With capital flowing out of China in spite of efforts to stem it, and markets expecting further US rate rises in 2017, the largest investors in emerging markets are focusing on differentiation and “managing risk”.



Questions remain with respect to how a Trump administration will deal with issues of trade and protectionism and whether campaign promises in relation to tariffs and trade deals materialise into something significant,” says Pierre-Yves Bareau, head of emerging market debt at JPMorgan Asset Management.

摩根大通资产管理公司(JPMorgan Asset Management)新兴市场债券主管皮埃尔-伊夫•巴罗(Pierre-Yves Bareau)表示:“问题依然在于特朗普政府如何应对贸易和保护主义,以及特朗普在竞选时就关税和贸易协定做出的承诺是否会兑现成为具有影响的东西。”广州投资翻译公司。


Will there be more public market listings?



The recent dearth of listings made last year the slowest for US IPOs since 2003 — but there are hopes of a rebound.



There will be a significant pick-up [in listings] in 2017, and this will probably become most evident in the second quarter,” predicts JD Moriarty, head of Americas equity capital markets at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)的美国股权资本市场主管JD•莫里亚蒂(JD Moriarty)预测道:“2017年(新股上市)数量将会大幅增长,可能在二季度最为明显。”


Bankers say the post-election equity rally and positive performance of 2016 deals bode well for a pick-up in activity next year. In contrast to 2015 deals, which ended that year down 6.5 per cent, 2016 listings are up on average by about 20 per cent, according to Dealogic.



There is also hope for a revival of tech initial public offerings. The hottest tech companies have avoided public markets in recent years, instead raising billions of dollars at attractive values privately.



Snap, the messaging app, is preparing for what is expected to be one of the largest tech listings in years as early as March. It is hoping for a valuation of $20bn to $25bn. If successful it could lure other tech “unicorns” — private tech companies that have achieved valuations of $1bn or more — to test the public markets.



Reporting by Elaine Moore, Dan McCrum, Roger Blitz, Nicole Bullock and Anjli Raval

伊莱恩•摩尔(Elaine Moore)、丹•麦克拉姆(Dan McCrum)、罗格•布里茨(Roger Blitz)、尼科尔•布洛克(Nicole Bullock)和安吉利•拉瓦尔(Anjli Raval)报道