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作者: 来源: 日期:2016-11-18 9:09:41

Trump win gives China keys to Asian economic integration





When US President Barack Obama sits down with Xi Jinping and other Pacific Rim leaders in Peru this weekend he may feel he is handing the Chinese leader the keys to the global economy.

这周末,当美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)在秘鲁与习近平及其他环太平洋国家领导人坐到一起时,他也许会感觉自己正在把全球经济的的钥匙交给这位中国领导人。广州经济翻译公司。


For years Mr Obama’s efforts to hammer out the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade pact with Japan and 10 other countries that together account for 40 per cent of the world economy, have dominated discussions at gatherings such as this weekend’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. Along with mooted deals with the EU and others that excluded China, they represented his administration’s brazen push to erect a strategic ring of trade alliances to contain Beijing’s rise.



But Donald Trump’s presidential victory — and the antitrade rhetoric of a campaign catering to disgruntled blue-collar voters in rust belt states — have brought all that to an ignominious end. China is wasting no time in moving into the economic driver’s seat and pushing the US out of its role as the lead advocate of economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region.

然而,唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)当选总统,以及竞选过程中反自由贸易的言论(这些言论旨在迎合铁锈工业带各州心怀不满的蓝领选民),令这一切努力不光彩地走向终结。中国正不失时机地坐上经济驾驶座,把美国挤出亚太经济一体化头号倡导者的角色。广州经济翻译公司。


Rather than Mr Obama’s TPP, the focus in Lima this week will be on Mr Xi’s ambitions for an even larger Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific, as well as for another Chinese backed trade deal that has been a rival to the TPP.



At the heart of the Chinese leader’s pitch is a simple new reality for countries looking to strengthen economic bonds in the world’s fastest-growing region. “You can’t beat something with nothing and the Chinese are offering something,” says Adam Posen, head of the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics.

对于寻求在全球增长最快地区加强经济联系的国家,这位中国领导人的推销讲稿的核心是一个简单的新现实。“你不能两手空空地打败对方,而中国人在拿出一点东西,”华盛顿彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)所长亚当•波森(Adam Posen)表示。


China’s proposed FTAAP would stretch from Latin America to Indochina and include the US. But it is years away from becoming reality. Leaders and ministers gathering in Lima this week from Apec’s 21 member countries are only being presented with a China-initiated study on how it might come to fruition and considering how to proceed.



For years the US hope was that it could get ahead of China by offering the TPP as the main building block of an FTAAP. All 12 TPP members belong to APEC.



But China is proposing another rival to the TPP that is closer to completion — the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. Launched in 2013 by the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in a bid to merge the group’s trade deals with China, India, Japan and others, it is now a Beijing-led project. Importantly, it also excludes the US.

不过,中国正在推动另一个更接近达成的TPP对手协议——“区域全面经济伙伴关系协定”(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership,简称RCEP)。该协议于2013年由东盟(ASEAN) 10国启动,试图将东盟与中国、印度、日本及其他国家之间的贸易协议合为一体。如今,该协议已成为由北京牵头的项目。重要的是,该协议还把美国排除在外。


Washington and others have long viewed the RCEP as a bastard cousin of the TPP. Although RCEP includes seven of the 12 TPP countries, most experts see it as an old-fashioned deal likely to deliver only a modest reduction in tariffs and trade barriers. It contains none of the ambitious rules covering areas such as the conduct of state-owned enterprises or cross-border data flows that the TPP does.



But with Mr Trump’s election, “countries have realised very quickly that [RCEP] is the only major Asia trade deal on the table,” says Joshua Meltzer, a former Australian diplomat now at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

但随着特朗普当选,“很多国家已经很快意识到,RCEP是桌面上唯一重大的亚洲贸易协议,”澳大利亚前外交官、目前供职于华盛顿布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)的约书亚•梅尔策(Joshua Meltzer)表示。


Not everyone is willing to give up on the TPP. Some governments are considering concluding a TPP without the US, something leaders will discuss on the sidelines of the Apec summit.



Japan, New Zealand and others have been moving to ratify the TPP, which under its current rules cannot come into force without US approval.



After a meeting with Japan’s Shinzo Abe this week, Malaysia’s Najib Razak told reporters he hoped “the strategic importance of the TPP will be recognised by the incoming [US] administration” and that Mr Trump might eventually sign on.

在本周与日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)会晤后,马来西亚总理纳吉布•拉扎克(Najib Razak)向记者表示,他希望“即将上任的新一届美国行政当局能认识到TPP的战略重要性”,并希望特朗普最终接受该协议。广州经济翻译公司。


But few believe that volte-face will happen, and distrust of the US is also emerging. One senior official from a TPP country says the US failure to ratify the deal raised questions about any future negotiations with Washington. “It is very hard to say that there will be the same level of trust in the US after this.”



The consequences of the looming turnround in US trade policy are broader still.



Besides the TPP, Mr Trump’s election bodes badly for an EU-US deal — the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) — already facing stiff political headwinds in Europe. It also is likely to mean the death of negotiations to liberalise the global trade in services and environmental goods.



The world does need US leadership. Without a TPP or a TTIP . . . it doesn’t look like western democracies are all that capable of pursuing trade agreements,” says Dan Ikenson, director of trade research at the libertarian Cato Institute.

自由意志主义的加图研究所(Cato Institute)贸易研究主任丹•伊肯森(Dan Ikenson)表示:“世界确实需要美国的领导。没有TPPTTIP……西方民主国家貌似不太可能达成贸易协定。”


Even if that leaves a vacuum for China to fill, Trump backers seem nonplussed.



For too long the focus of US trade policy has been geopolitical rather than economic, they argue. The result has been the rust belt deindustrialisation that laid the ground for Mr Trump’s rise, they contend, and more important than hatching new agreements is enforcing the rules of existing ones or renegotiating them to benefit America.



The US has been positioning itself to be the good guy of trade and open markets since World War Two. I think now the US needs to discuss how it has been dealt serious disadvantages,” says Phil English, a former Republican congressman from Pennsylvania who served as a Trump delegate to July’s Republican convention. “I think this is going to be liberating.”

宾夕法尼亚州前共和党国会议员、在7月共和党大会上曾是特朗普代表的菲尔•英格利希(Phil English)表示:“自二战以来,美国一直将自己定位为贸易和开放市场的好人。我认为现在美国需要讨论自己怎么会招致一些严重的不利因素。我认为这将是个解脱。”



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