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作者: 来源: 日期:2016-11-02 9:03:21

Wall Street’s fear gauge trembles after Clinton poll lead narrows





Tightening polls just a week before the US presidential election sent tremors through financial markets yesterday, as investors rethought their long-held bet on a Hillary Clinton victory.

美国大选投票一周前不断收窄的民调结果昨日给金融市场带来震荡,投资者开始反思他们长期以来押注希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)获胜的观点。广州金融翻译公司。


The Vix index, a measure of expected US stock market volatility known as Wall Street’s “fear gauge”, neared highs last seen in the aftermath of the UK’s vote to leave the EU this summer.



Gold, regarded as the ultimate haven, rose sharply while the Mexican peso — a barometer of election sentiment because of Donald Trump’s pledge to build a wall along the US’s southern ­border — fell 2.1 per cent against the ­dollar in volatile trading.

被视为终极避风港的黄金价格急剧上涨,而墨西哥比索兑美元汇率——由于唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)誓言要在美国南部边境建起高墙,因此这一汇率成了美国选情的晴雨表——在震荡交易中下滑了2.1%。广州金融翻译公司。


With the Brexit trading experience in recent memory, it seems that some traders don’t want to be caught off side again and have started to act,” said Colin Cieszynski at CMC Markets.

“以最近英国退欧交易经验来看,一些交易商似乎不想再被打个措手不及,因此已开始行动,”CMC Markets的柯林•切申斯基(Colin Cieszynski)称。


Investors see Mrs Clinton as heralding less uncertainty for markets, partly because her long political career means her policies are seen as more predictable. Fresh polls in the wake of a new FBI probe into her use of a private email server have challenged assumptions about her chances of winning.



A Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll published yesterday showed Mr Trump with a one-point lead over Mrs Clinton nationally, the first time the Republican has held a lead in that poll since May. In the RealClearPolitics average of recent polls, Mrs Clinton now leads Mr Trump by just 2.2 points — down from a 7-point lead two weeks ago.

昨天公布的《华盛顿邮报》/美国广播公司新闻部(Washington Post-ABC News)民调显示,在全美范围内特朗普的支持率比希拉里领先1个百分点,这是自5月以来特朗普首次在民调中取得领先。同时RealClearPolitics对最近民调计算的平均值显示,希拉里仅领先特朗普2.2个百分点——而两周前她领先7个百分点。广州金融翻译公司。


The Trump campaign has seized on the changing race by battering Mrs Clinton on core issues such as Obamacare premiums and arguing that voters will face four years of federal probes and Washington gridlock if they send Mrs Clinton to the White House.



If we don’t repeal and replace Obamacare we will destroy American healthcare forever,” Mr Trump said yesterday at rally in Pennsylvania.



In the final week, Mr Trump has announced plans to spend $25m on ads in more than a dozen states, while both candidates are spending a significant amount of time in Florida, a state the Trump campaign has acknowledged it must take if it has any hope of winning. Mrs Clinton toured the state yesterday while Mr Trump is due to arrive today.



Markets are now going to have to recalibrate for a coin toss outcome versus what they thought was a sure thing,” said Nicholas Colas at Convergex.

“市场现在必须重新掂量不确定的大选结果,而不再是他们认为板上钉钉的结果,”Convergex的尼古拉斯•克拉斯(Nicholas Colas)称。


US equities were in a broad decline yesterday, with the S&P 500 sliding 0.75 per cent. The benchmark was set to close in the red for the sixth day in a row, its longest losing streak since August 2015, a time of tumult over China.

昨天美国股市全面下跌,准普尔500指数(S&P 500)下滑0.75%。该指数势必将出现连续六天下降,这是自20158月中国股市动荡以来该指数最长的连跌。


Gold was up more than 1 per cent. “That’s not to say people are rushing out to buy Krugerrands over fear of a Trump victory, but more that all risk assets are recalibrating,” Mr Colas said.