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广州经济翻译公司:特朗普应仿效里根的经济政策

作者: 来源: 日期:2016-11-14 9:00:40

Leader_The right lesson to draw from Ronald Reagan

特朗普应仿效里根的经济政策

 

广州经济翻译公司:FT社评:与其让永久性减税恶化美国长期财政状况,特朗普应学里根,把减税提议框定为财政收入中性的税改方案。

 

Reagan proved that deficits don’t matter,” US vice-president Dick Cheney told Paul O’Neill in 2002, when the Treasury Secretary expressed doubts about a round of tax cuts. Donald Trump appears set to test whether the proof still holds — if it ever did.

“里根证明了赤字并不重要,”时任美国副总统迪克•切尼(Dick Cheney)2002年告诉财政部长保罗•奥尼尔(Paul O'Neill),当时后者对新一轮减税提出质疑。唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)似乎要试验这一点是否仍然成立——如果它曾经成立过的话。广州经济翻译公司。

 

His victory has already prompted nostalgic references to Ronald Reagan — whose election in 1980 was greeted with similar scepticism. The comparison is flawed by big changes in the US and global economies in the intervening 36 years. But if there is one area where Mr Trump’s approach most resembles that of his predecessor, it is fiscal plans likely to lead to a huge rise in the US deficit.

特朗普的胜利已引起了人们怀旧地把他与罗纳德•里根(Ronald Reagan)相提并论,里根在1980年当选之初也曾受到类似怀疑。这36年间美国和全球经济的巨大变化,意味着这种对比是有缺陷的。但如果说特朗普有一个最接近他的前任的地方,那就是他的财政计划很可能导致美国财政赤字飙升。

 

Mr Trump’s comments on the campaign trail simply do not translate into a coherent economic plan. His angry rhetoric on trade and hostility to the Fed’s stimulus policies are consistent with a wide range of policies, some alarming and some much less so.

特朗普在竞选过程中发表的言论,根本不能构成一个连贯的经济计划。他对贸易的满腔怒火和对美联储(Fed)刺激政策的敌意,与包罗万象的一系列政策相容,其中一些令人惊恐,另一些没那么吓人。广州经济翻译公司。

 

He has, however, made concrete and repeated commitments to tax cuts, on both personal income and corporate profits. He has also promised higher defence spending and a huge burst of investment in infrastructure, to “rebuild our highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, schools, hospitals”.

然而,他已多次对减税(涵盖个人所得和企业利润两方面)作出具体承诺。同时他还承诺增加国防支出和大举投资基础设施,以“重建我们的公路、桥梁、隧道、机场、学校、医院。”

 

He asserts his economic plan will put millions into work and double the US growth rate. That is questionable, especially given indications that the US economy is now close to full employment. The consequences for US public finances are, by contrast, incontrovertible. Mr Trump’s unfunded tax cuts could add more than $5tn to the US federal debt by 2026, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

他断言自己的经济计划将让数百万人获得工作,并使美国的增长率翻倍。这是有问题的,尤其是在迹象表明美国经济已接近充分就业的情况下。相比之下,对美国公共财政带来的后果是不容质疑的。据美国尽责联邦预算委员会(Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget)估算,至2026年,特朗普提出的没有资金着落的减税计划可能新增逾5万亿美元美国联邦债务。广州经济翻译公司。

 

There is a strong case for a shift in the balance of monetary and fiscal stimulus, with fiscal measures — well-targeted spending on infrastructure in particular — taking more of the strain. Indeed, Hillary Clinton might have proposed something similar. But if the shift appeared likely to result in a large increase in the US deficit, it would bring higher inflation and a rise in borrowing costs in its train. This, in turn, has implications for monetary policy.

有很好的理由对货币和财政刺激的平衡作出改变,让财政措施——特别是有针对性的基建支出——肩负更大重担。的确,希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)或许也会提出类似建议。但如果这种改变貌似会大幅推高美国财政赤字,那么它将带来更高的通胀以及借款成本增加,进而对货币政策造成影响。

 

The obvious response would be for the Federal Reserve to adopt a tighter stance. Indeed, if Mr Trump dislikes the post-crisis era of ultra-low interest rates, putting his fiscal plans into practice would hasten the process of policy “normalisation” at the Fed, without meddling in the bank’s affairs directly.

明显的回应是,美联储将采取偏紧的政策姿态。的确,如果特朗普不喜欢超低利率的后危机时代,实施他的财政计划将加快美联储政策“正常化”进程,而无需直接干预美国央行的事务。广州经济翻译公司。

 

This combination of looser fiscal policy and a tighter monetary stance is not compatible with reaching his growth target in any sustainable way. And it would be disastrous to replace Janet Yellen, Fed chair, when her current term expires, with another compliant enough to take his target seriously.

更宽松的财政政策和更紧缩的货币政策这一组合,与以任何可持续方式达到特朗普的增长目标不相容。而在美联储(Fed)主席耶伦任期结束后撤换她,任命一个听话的、能认真对待特朗普的目标的人接替,将是一场灾难。

 

Moreover, far better than worsening the US long-term fiscal position with permanent tax cuts would be for Mr Trump to reframe his proposals into a broadly revenue-neutral tax reform package. This is what President Reagan advanced in his second term.

此外,与其用永久性减税恶化美国的长期财政状况,对特朗普而言好得多的做法是把他的提议重新框定为一个大体上财政收入中性的税改方案,这正是里根在第二任期里推行的事情。广州经济翻译公司。

 

Mr Trump’s plans on personal taxation are indefensible. They would bring very modest benefits to the middle income voters he claims to represent, and large gains to the richest. There is, however, a good case for cutting the rate of corporation tax to a level that is more competitive internationally. But this should be accompanied by reforms to broaden the tax base, eliminate tax loopholes, and encourage companies to repatriate the estimated $1tn to $3tn they hold stockpiled abroad.

特朗普针对个人所得的减税计划是站不住脚的。这些计划给他声称代表的中等收入选民带来的福利非常有限,而给最富裕的人带来巨大收益。不过,有很好的理由将公司税率降低到更具国际竞争力的水平。但这一举措应该伴随一些改革,以扩大税基,封堵税收漏洞,鼓励企业将囤积在海外、据估计有1万亿美元到3万亿美元的资金汇回国内。

 

Of course, much will depend on how Mr Trump’s plans are viewed by the Republicans who will control Congress, and on his choice of Treasury Secretary. Here, his instinct may be to appoint a weak candidate and run economic policy from the White House. This would be a mistake. The new president needs a strong cabinet that can command the respect of markets and international interlocutors.

当然,很多事情将取决于控制国会的共和党人如何看待特朗普的计划,以及特朗普的财政部长人选。特朗普的本能可能是任命一个较为弱势的财长,以便由白宫决定经济政策。这将是一个错误。这位新总统需要一个能够赢得市场和国际对话者尊敬的强大内阁。广州经济翻译公司。

 

Despite the huge uncertainties unleashed by Mr Trump’s victory, there is a broad set of measures including tax reform, infrastructure investment and a greater emphasis on fiscal stimulus that could add up to a coherent — if not ideal — economic policy. Such measures have implications for the rest of the world, especially emerging markets vulnerable to a rise in US borrowing costs. But it could be compatible with continued growth in the world’s most important economy. As with so much of what Mr Trump does, the worry is that his urge to excess will win out over conciliation.

尽管特朗普的胜利带来了巨大的不确定性,但税改、基础设施投资和更强调财政刺激等一整套措施有可能构成一套连贯(如果不算理想)的经济政策。这些举措会对世界其他地方产生影响,尤其是容易受美国借款成本上升影响的新兴市场。但这套经济政策有可能与世界上最重要的经济体保持增长相容。就如特朗普的很多所作所为一样,担忧在于他做事过头的冲动将压倒理性妥协。

 

广州经济翻译公司

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